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[liny195]

Every week , I will present a summary of some basic and advanced stats for the Colts performance relative to the league. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com and the nflSCrapR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.Well, the Colt’s offense did not cover the 7.5 point spread but they certainly did put up enough points to win.And so while not nearly as good as the previous 3 weeks, the offense was still pretty good. Outside of the turnovers, the Colts moved the ball well with an overall 74.3% Drive Success Rate.That’s not to ignore the turnovers as they still count, but anytime a team puts up 26 first downs with 7.0 yards per play, that will translate to points.TEAM TOTALSThe jump-off-the-page stat here is the drop in third down conversions. The Colts entered the game with a league leading 52% 3DC but against the Dolphins, even with an advantageous 5.8 average yards to gain, they only managed a 33% 3DC, which ranks 22nd for the week. Fortunately,the Colts converted 1st and 2nd downs at an elevated rate so the more important overall conversion rate was still high (35%).PASSINGThe only thing more ridiculous than Luck’s 81% completion rate is that 3 other QBs actually had a higher number (technically, Jacoby Brissett also had a 100% completion rate but I’m not counting that). Air Yards is about the same as the previous 2 weeks, but Indy receivers posted 6.6 Yards After the Catch, which was by far their best effort of the season.Those numbers directly tie to the 6 explosive passing plays for 161 yards with 4 of those being T.Y. Hilton connections for 105 yards.All of that combines into an impressive 9.1 YPA (9.3 excluding Brissett’s pass).However, because of the 2 picks, Andrew Luck’s Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt was only mediocre (8.0) causing the “meh” ranking this week. But outside of those picks, the passing game was lights out. RUSHINGThe run game didn’t fare as well. Although 4.5 Yards Per Carry is not bad and Mack was playing well before leaving the game with a concussion (85 yds, 5.6 ypc), those yards didn’t translate to first downs, which is what matters (and why ypc is a crap stat).An actual Rush Success Rate of 42% and a weighted RSR of 33% places the effort in the bottom third of the league. CONCLUSIONS & NEXT MATCH-UPThe Colts really only had 1 bad drive in the second half and outside of the turnovers looked competent in the first half. However , while the overall effort was statistically good, it definitely leaves a bothersome aftertaste.Fixing the mental errors will be a must for this team to make the playoffs and that starts in week 13 against the Jaguars.Since the Jags will have a new OC, a new QB and will probably be missing their starting running back, comparing offensive stats seems moot. But I’ll do it anyway. On the season, the Jag’s DSR of 66.7% ranks 27th and they are putting up less than 18 points per game. Their pass game has relied on shorter passes with the 31st shortest Air Yards per attempt but that is made up for by having the 7th best YAC in the league.In week 10, the Jags hung 9.9 YAC on the Colts and if that repeats it will be a lot closer of a game than expected. Jacksonville has been slightly more successful in the run game, ranking 19th in wRSR. However, they are likely losing Fournette (3.5 ypc, 30.8% wRSR) and Bortles who is their 3rd leading rusher. T.J. Yeldon has shown to be efficient (4.1 ypc, 31.0% wRSR) but he can only take up so much slack. SEASON TOTALS (per game) Now that the leader of the NFL Network’s draft arm Mike Mayock has moved into a real actual general manager job working with Jon Gruden for the Raiders, it seemed like as good a time as any to take a look back at Mayock’s last 8 mock drafts and ask the question: What would the Colts be like if Mike Mayock had been our GM?Photo by Tom Szczerbowski/Getty Images2018 - Mayock’s Pick: Trade back for S Minkah Fitzpatrick, G Isaiah WynnIn this year’s draft, Mayock had the Colts trading back with the Bills and taking safety Minkah Fitzpatrick at 12 and guard Isaiah Wynn at 22. It is pretty tough to imagine being without Quenton Nelson, and Isaiah Wynn has spent the season on IR. Is he a player who could be as good as Nelson at some point? Perhaps. But he wouldn’t have helped the Colts this season. Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images2017 – Mayock’s Pick: DE Derek BarnettDefensive end Derek Barnett was Mayock’s pick for the Colts at 15th overall. Barnett has talent and could certainly continue to develop, but he has also been a part of a ridiculous defensive line group in Philly, so it is tough to know how good he would be as the go-to guy. He has just 7.5 sacks in his two years in the league though, which I would argue is less than you’d hope from a top 15 pick. Missing out on Malik Hooker and his upside seems like a miss here, but not a complete failure. 2016 – Mayock’s Pick: C Ryan KellyMayock nailed the pick right on the money for the Colts here, selecting center Ryan Kelly, who has had an incredible season in his 3rd year as a Colt. Behind Andrew Luck and T.Y. Hilton , Kelly is the best pick Ryan Grigson made. Good work Mike.2015 – Mayock’s Pick: OT Cedric OgbuehiWe all remember 2015 right? That’s the year that the Colts selected Phillip Dorsett, everyone’s favorite receiver. Yeah. That wasn’t great. What is worse than that? Well, the fact that Mike Mayock would have taken offensive tackle Cedric Ogbuehi with that 29th pick. Ogbuehi plays for the Bengals and is a likely prospect to be cut and never heard from again in the NFL. At least Dorsett got us Jacoby Brissett right?2014 – Mayock’s Pick: No one. Because reasons.Who did Mike Mayock have headed to the Colts in the first round in 2014? No one. Because Grigson traded that pick for Trent Richardson. While I’m sure local Indy restaurants benefitted, it didn’t do much for the running game.2013 – Mayock’s Pick: D.J. HaydenPhoto by Mark Brown/Getty ImagesIf you can’t remember who the Colts selected in 2013, that can be forgiven. Mainly because no one from that draft is currently on an NFL roster. The pick Ryan Grigson made was to draft Bjorn Werner at defensive end. Mayock’s pick for the Colts was cornerback D.J. Hayden who plays for the Jaguars. He is a definitively more valuable player than Werner, because he plays for a real NFL team and is actually capable of doing his job. He obviously would have made a nice addition to the Colts secondary rather than wasting the pick on Werner.Photo by MSA/Icon SMI/Corbis via Getty Images2012 – Mayock’s Pick: QB Andrew LuckWas there any doubt really? Of course Andrew Luck was the pick. Anyone who tried to say differently was just kidding themselves. Luck has been a franchise altering player, and it is nice to know that Mike could see that like everyone else.Photo by Steven Ryan/Getty Images2011 – Mayock’s Pick: OT Nate SolderIn the 2011 draft, Mike Mayock had the Colts taking a left tackle. He just didn’t have them taking the right one. He had them drafting Nate Solder with the 22nd pick overall instead of Anthony Castonzo. Castonzo has been one of the most reliable and underrated tackles in the league for a long time, and I’d take him over Solder any day. Despite the Colts having drafted pretty poorly in the last several years, I am not sure this team is even marginally better with Mayock’s draft picks than they are already. It is tough to give him credit for Andrew Luck, who was a no-brainer, but at least he hit on Ryan Kelly. The real miss is in this year’s draft. The Colts took Nelson, a better prospect, and were able to add to their pick total rather than give up picks. The result fixed both the offensive line problem, and their issue at linebacker for the foreseeable future. There is no way I’d take his trade over what the Colts got.In short, I’m glad Mike will be working for the Raiders, and Chris Ballard will be holding it down in Indianapolis. What do you think?